Trump blev buet ud, da han sagde, at der var «millioner» uden statsborgerskab, der havde stemt ved seneste valg. Nu har en forskningsgruppe fundet ud af, at omkring 5,7 millioner udlændinge kan have stemt ved valget i 2008, da Obama blev valgt.

Det er så højt et tal, at det gør spørgsmålet om ID-identifikation meget presserende.

 A research group in New Jersey has taken a fresh look at postelection polling data and concluded that the number of noncitizens voting illegally in U.S. elections is likely far greater than previous estimates.

As many as 5.7 million noncitizens may have voted in the 2008 election, which put Barack Obama in the White House.

The research organization Just Facts, a widely cited, independent think tank led by self-described conservatives and libertarians, revealed its number-crunching in a report on national immigration.

Just Facts President James D. Agresti and his team looked at data from an extensive Harvard/YouGov study that every two years questions a sample size of tens of thousands of voters. Some acknowledge they are noncitizens and are thus ineligible to vote.

Andre er kommet til et andet resultat: At der ikke foregik ulovlig stemmeafgivning i noget væsentlig omfang. Bl.a. viser et Harvard-studie dette. Men Agresti er kommet til et helt andet resultat. Man kan få en mistanke om, at det demokratiske parti ikke synes det gør noget, hvis udlændinge stemmer. Det gør til gengæld dem, der får stemmerne.

Man kan lidt firkantet sigt, at der er to lejre:

In one camp, there are groundbreaking studies by professors at Old Dominion University in Virginia who attempted to compile scientifically derived illegal voting numbers using the Harvard data, called the Cooperative Congressional Election Study.

On the other side are the professors who conducted the study and contended that “zero” noncitizens of about 18 million adults in the U.S. voted. The liberal mainstream media adopted this position and proclaimed the Old Dominion work was “debunked.”

Som så meget andet i dagens USA er spørgsmålet om stemmeafgivning stærkt politiseret.

Agresti er kommet frem til meget højere tal end Old Dominion University. Skulle disse tal vise sig valide, taler vi om et tal så højt, at det kunne have ændret valgets udfald.

The ODU professors, who stand by their work in the face of attacks from the left, concluded that in 2008 as few as 38,000 and as many as 2.8 million noncitizens voted.

Mr. Agresti’s analysis of the same polling data settled on much higher numbers. He estimated that as many as 7.9 million noncitizens were illegally registered that year and 594,000 to 5.7 million voted.

These numbers are more in line with the unverified estimates given by President Trump, who said the number of ballots cast by noncitizens was the reason he lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton

Trump nedsatte i sidste uge en kommission, som skal udrede problemet. Den ledes af vicepræsident Mike Pence.

Skulle Just Facts beregninger stemme, vil Trump kunne have fået ret i sin udtalelse: Det var udlændinge der gjorde, at Hillary fik flest stemmer.

For 2012, Just Facts said, 3.2 million to 5.6 million noncitizens were registered to vote and 1.2 million to 3.6 million of them voted.

Der er mange NGO’ere, der er optaget af at valgende afvikles korrekt og gårrigtigt for sig. Blandt de 18 millioner ikke-amerikanere er der mange, som har modtaget papirer, der kan anvendes ved stemmeafgivning. Er de først kommet ind i systemet, er det vanskeligt at luge dem ud igen.

He  (Agresti) cites government audits that show large numbers of noncitizens use false IDs and Social Security numbers in order to function in the U.S., which could include voting. (….)

The Public Interest Legal Foundation, which fights voter fraud, released one of its most comprehensive reports last month.

Its investigation found that Virginia removed more than 5,500 noncitizens from voter lists, including 1,852 people who had cast more than 7,000 ballots. The people volunteered their status, most likely when acquiring driver’s licenses. The Public Interest Legal Foundation said there are likely many more illegal voters on Virginia’s rolls who have never admitted to being noncitizens

Kommissionen som Pence leder, skal også se på mandtallet, altså hvor mange som er registreret, selvom de er døde, og mennesker, der er registreret stemmeberettiget flere steder.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jun/19/noncitizen-illegal-vote-number-higher-than-estimat/